A profit figure is a calculation. How much that calculation deserves to be trusted is a separate question, and the site answers it separately.
Confidence is not a probability
A confidence of 80 does not mean an 80% chance of profit. It is a score out of 100 for the evidence: how deep the order book is, how steady the price has been, how fresh the reading is, and whether the whole profit rests on one unusual order.
It never changes a money figure. It sits beside one and says how much weight it deserves.
The one to watch for
A very large profit with a low confidence is the classic shape of a trade that is not really there. It usually means the best price comes from one small order — if that player cancels, the price you were counting on disappears.
Delivery is its own risk
An order is a request, not a purchase. Some items fill in minutes; some barely fill at all. A trade whose ingredients nobody is selling is not a trade, however good the arithmetic looks.
Before you commit
- Is the data live, or old enough to check in game first?
- Does the confidence have a warning attached — and have you read it?
- Is the profit resting on one small order at the top?
- Can you afford a small run rather than the whole one?